Last week had plenty of headlines from the disappointing Pulse dairy auction to China’s mounting COVID cases and growing government protests, to USDA’s disappointing purchases of dairy products and the possibility of national railway strike. HighGround Dairy’s Lucas Fuess talks with Lee Mielke:

The Agriculture Department announced the November Federal order Class III benchmark milk price at $21.01 per hundredweight (cwt.), down 80 cents from October but $2.98 above Nov. 2021. That put the eleven month average at $22.09, up from $16.96 a year ago and $18.39 in 2020.

The November Class IV price is $23.30, down $1.66 from October, $4.51 above a year ago, and the lowest Class IV since January. Courtesy of the Mielke Market Weekly

The Agriculture Department announced the final Federal order Class I base milk price of the year at $22.58 per hundredweight, down $1.51 from November but $3.41 above Dec. 2021, and the lowest Class I since February. It equates to $1.94 per gallon, up from $1.65 a year ago. The Class I average for 2022 is $23.66, up from $16.83 a year ago and $16.91 in 2020.

September cheese consumption was strong. Tuesday’s GDT reversed direction and head back up. StoneX dairy broker Dave Kurzawski talks with Lee Mielke about both.

GDT trading has been struggling and much of that due to China’s absence but global markets are increasingly important to U.S. dairy farmers. But, global markets “have never been more interdependent than they are currently,” says Ron O’Brien, President of New Zealand-based Nui Markets North America. He talks with Lee Mielke about it:

The September milk feed ratio ended seven months of decline but it will be short-lived, according to dairy economist Bill Brooks of Stoneheart Consulting in Dearborn, Missouri. He talks with Lee Mielke about it:

Butter prices have pulled back and cheese has fallen below $2 per pound. The “elephant in the room is not in the room,” meaning China – but StoneX broker Dave Kurzawski tells Lee Mielke there’s still support under the markets:

August dairy demand tells a story. HighGround Dairy’s Lucas Fuess talks about it with Lee Mielke and has a warning on the high butter price.

The November Federal order Class I base milk price was announced at $24.09 per hundredweight, up $1.38 from October, $6.11 above Nov. 2021, and the highest November price ever, topping to the Nov. 2014 high by 3 cents. It equates to $2.07 per gallon, up from $1.55 a year ago. The eleven month average stands at $23.76, up from $16.61 a year ago and $16.64 in 2020.

Courtesy of the Mielke Market Weekly

The USDA has upped its latest milk production estimate in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. HighGround Dairy’s Lucus Fuess agrees and says the consensus is that U.S. milk output might be a little stronger than normal this fall and into 2023. He talks about it with Lee Mielke.

U.S. dairy exports in August kept U.S. prices strong, according to StoneX dairy broker, Dave Kurzawski. He talks about it with Lee Mielke:

The September Federal order Class III benchmark milk price slipped 28 cents from the previous month but is still $3.29 above September 2021. Unfortunately, it’s the lowest Class III since Dec. 2021. The nine month average stands at $22.24, up from $16.75 a year ago, $17.48 in 2020 and $16.11 in 2019.

The September Class IV price is $24.63, down 18 cents from August, $8.27 above a year ago, and the lowest Class IV since February. The Class IV average is at $24.81, up from $15.26 a year ago, $13.53 in 2020, and 16.21 in 2019.
Courtesy of the Mielke Market Weekly

U.S. butter prices have been in the clouds and part of the reason for that may actually lie in the sometimes controversial Tik Tok social media, according to StoneX dairy broker Dave Kurzawski. He talks about it with Lee Mielke:

The August Milk Production report appears to show a rather large increase in U.S. milk output but StoneX dairy broker Dave Kurzawski puts the numbers into perspective with Lee Mielke.

Dairy product demand was “mostly positive” in July, according to HighGround Dairy’s Lucas Fuess. He talks with Lee Mielke about the details.

U.S. dairy exports remained strong in July. Lee Mielke talks about them with HighGround Dairy’s Lucas Fuess.

Dairy market analyst Bill Brooks joins us on this Labor Day to discuss the dairy markets:

The Got Milk campaign imagined what a shortage of milk would mean to consumers. With July milk output only up 0.2%, do we face a milk shortage in this country? Matt Gould, analyst and editor of the Dairy and Food Market Analyst newsletter, talks about it with Lee Mielke:

Butter hit a seven-year high on Aug 3rd but was short-lived. StoneX broker Dave Kurzawski talks with Lee Mielke about it, and how bullish he is on cheese, despite prices falling below $2 per pound.

The news was mixed this past week with the $1.81 drop in the Class III milk price, however U.S. dairy exports remained strong in June. HighGround Dairy’s Lucas Fuess talks with Lee Mielke about the highlights.

Is it supply or demand controlling the dairy markets? StoneX dairy broker, Dave Kurzawski, talks with Lee Mielke about how things shape up right now.

Tuesday’s GDT weighted average was down 5%. Many point the finger at China and the latest import data would seem to support that. HighGround Dairy’s Lucas Fuess talks about it with Lee Mielke:

The numbers would indicate dairy product demand is slipping however StoneX dairy broker Dave Kurzawski, says you have to put the data into perspective and does so in his talk with Lee Mielke:

Tuesday was not a good day to come back to, following the 4th of July holiday. The GDT dropped 4.1% and CME prices fell as well. Lee Mielke talks about it with Matt Gould, editor of the Dairy and Food Market Analyst.