NEW

Shutdown Continues

The partial government shutdown has cost the dairy markets some regularly supplied information from USDA. How important was that info? FC Stone dairy broker Dave Kurzawski discusses with Lee Mielke on today's Dairy Radio Now.

Key Milk Outlook Factors

Dr. Mike Hutjens is back on to tell us some key factors in determining where future milk prices are heading.

Class I Up 18 Cents

The February Federal Order Class I base milk price was announced by the USDA at $15.30 per hundredweight, up 18 cents from January, $1.05 above February 2018, and the highest Class I price since November 2018. It equates to $1.32 per gallon, up from $1.23 a year ago,...

FSA Offices Reopen Temporarily

Many Farm Service Agency (FSA) offices will reopen temporarily in the coming days to perform certain limited services for farmers and ranchers. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has recalled about 2,500 FSA employees to open offices on Thursday, January 17 and...

Storing ‘Bug Free’ Grains

Warren McDougal, regional sales manager with Central Life Sciences, joined us on today's Dairy Radio Now to share tips on how to prevent stored grains from costly insect infestations.

Leaders Are Made, Not Born

Professionals and producers with professionalism can set themselves apart from others by attending Cornerstone Dairy Academy™, a product of Professional Dairy Producers of Wisconsin (PDPW) and underwritten by the Professional Dairy Producers Foundation (PDPF). PDPW's...

Thawing Trade Relations With China

HighGround Dairy’s director of market intelligence, Lucas Fuess, says “the unthawing” of trade relations with China is good news for U.S. farmers but the U.S. has its work cut out for itself. 

A Closer Look At Vitamins

Dr. Mike Hutjens looks at the importance of feeding vitamins to your cows on today's Feed Form Friday:  

Government Shutdown Stymies Farm Bill

We have a new Farm Bill that will benefit dairy farmers but the government shutdown has put a 'hitch in the giddy-up' for the time being. Dairy has been noted as a big winner in the Farm Bill, with new programs that assist dairy producers facing low prices. Chris...

Effective Fly Control All Year Round

We're not dealing with many insect pests this time of year but there still should be an effective fly control plan in place. For the most effective control, operators should employ a comprehensive Integrated Pest Management (IPM), according to Mark Upton, Central Life...

Oversupply, Trade Talks Affecting Dairy Markets

FC Stone’s Dave Kurzawski addressed the global markets on today’s Dairy Radio Now,  stating “A majority of the talk surrounding the recent and drastic sell-off on Cheese and Class III (futures) revolves around President Trump’s newly imposed tariffs on the likes of China and Mexico. However, putting the blame solely on the administration is a bit of a stretch.” “A larger issue at play here seems to be the current oversupply of barrels in the marketplace, which is not an abundantly exportable cheese.” 

Kurzawski admitted that, while the Mexican tariffs sent jitters throughout the market and are not good when trying to grow U.S. dairy exports, the reality is that those tariffs are only projected to effect a 4-5 cent reduction in the cheese price and not the 25-30 cents that we saw in the barrel market over the last couple weeks. “The seeds of this precipitous decline in the spot cheese market, particularly on the barrel side in the month of June, were sown probably a month or two ago,” he argued. Global dairy demand was great the first four to five months of 2018, he said, but in mid-May “the spigot was turned off, things calmed down, and the markets were of the mindset that we have enough milk for the time being. We had really good demand that was eating away at that milk, allowing us to make cheese, but now we have a lot of fresh cheese sitting out there and the phone stopped ringing.” 

“The sellers got really aggressive and said, we can bleed out slowly at $1.40 (per pound) or we can go down and try to find a bid and I think they found a bid at the low $1.20s,” he said, though he doesn’t believe prices will stay that low for long. Summer heat can change this in a hurry, he said, as can other factors like cows coming off rbST in key areas, labor issues, poor income-over-feed margins, and continued good global demand. “This is not 2009,” he concluded, “even though we can see a price on the spot barrel market that we haven’t seen since 2009.”

 

Previous

Next

Submit a Comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.