HighGround Dairy’s director of market intelligence, Lucas Fuess, says “the unthawing” of trade relations with China is good news for U.S. farmers but the U.S. has its work cut out for itself.
Matt Gould, editor, and analyst with the Dairy and Food Market Analyst newsletter reports the GDT lends some optimism, even though the dairy industry and others still face the “trade war” left over from 2018. He also tells Lee Mielke that U.S. restaurants faced a challenging year.
FC Stone’s Dave Kurzawski joined us on the last day of the year with a recap of 2018 and what is in store for ’19:
As of midnight December 21, a partial shutdown of the government went into effect due to the failure of a House-passed continuing resolution in the Senate. At issue is President Trump’s insistence of funding for a border wall with Mexico. The Agriculture Department announced a contingency plan for its services. It will continue to publish its weekly National Dairy Products Sales Report but will not produce the monthly NASS Milk Production, Cold Storage, or Dairy Products reports. Monthly milk price announcements will also continue. The last time a shutdown impacted dairy programs was October 2013.
Matt Gould, analyst, and editor of the Dairy and Food Market Analyst newsletter joins Lee Mielke on this Christmas Eve broadcast:
The USDA’s latest Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook show overall milk use in October was higher than year-earlier levels but FC Stone dairy broker Dave Kurzawski tells Lee Mielke on today’s Dairy Radio Now that the data speaks volumes to what has happened on the cheese futures and spot market. American cheese demand was down 9.9 percent from a year ago, unusual for this time of year, he said, but up 2.5 percent from September. The problem is that we price milk on American cheese, though he believes that will turn around. Listen Here:
Jerry Dryer, analyst, and editor of the Dairy and Food Market Analyst newsletter joined us on today’s Mielke Monday to give a small preview of his December forecast. He believes we will see some $17 milk by the end of the year and, if his hunch on milk supply becomes reality, “We could see $20 milk by the end of next year.”
HighGround Dairy’s Director of Dairy Market Intelligence, Lucas Fuess, talks with Lee Mielke about the hope for any rebound in milk prices ahead:
Stewart-Peterson, Inc. Market Advisor John Heinberg joined us on today’s Dairy Radio Now to update listeners on the latest U.S. dairy market activity and what to anticipate for 2019:
The nation’s Number 1 milk-producing state became a part of the Federal Milk Market Order system on November 1st. FC Stone dairy broker, Dave Kurzawski, talks with Lee Mielke about the ramifications of that additional 3 million plus pounds of milk per month being added to the Federal order for dairy producers in other states, and does he see higher dairy prices after Thanksgiving from the Christmas buy?
Matt Gould, an analyst of the Dairy & Food Market Analyst newsletter joined us on today’s Mielke Monday to see if there is any silver lining in the down milk prices that producers are facing.
HighGround Dairy’s Lucas Fuess pointed out on today’s Mielke Monday Dairy Radio Now broadcast that, even though dairy commercial disappearance and exports are strong, that hasn’t been enough to help the barrel cheese price. Most exports are blocks, he said, and that has contributed to the big price spread between them.
FC Stone’s Dave Kurzawski says we may not be accurately assessing profitability on the dairy unless we consider the so-called “fixed costs.” He chats with Lee Mielke about it on Monday’s Dairy Radio Now:
The new United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement doesn’t have a lot of great news for U.S. dairy farmers, according to analyst Jerry Dryer of the Dairy & Food Market Analyst Newsletter. He talks with Lee Mielke about it on today’s Dairy Radio Now.
HighGround Dairy’s Lucas Fuess reacts to the U.S. Canada agreement on trade announced last week and takes a peek at what he sees in 2019 for U.S. dairy:
Matt Gould, editor, and analyst with the Dairy and Food Market Analyst newsletter, says you might not know it from dairy product prices but domestic demand has been very strong or firm. He talks with Lee about it and the latest salvo in the China tariff war.
Matt Gould of the Dairy and Food Market Analyst newsletter discusses the messages from the August Milk Production report and how the light at the end of the tunnel may have been pushed backward
by the latest tariff war salvo with China.
How are the dairy markets reacting to the recent headlines? FC Stone’s Dave Kurzawski discusses with Lee Mielke.
The Trump administration appears to have worked a deal with Mexico and while talks continue with Canada, High Ground Dairy’s Lucas Fuess tells us the latest U.S. dairy export data:
It was Labor Day, 1988 when Lee Mielke launched DairyLine, a radio network devoted entirely to the dairy industry. Since then, DairyLine has transformed to Dairy Radio Now with MIelke providing weekly reports on the latest market conditions. On this anniversary we had a chance to look back at 30 years of providing info to the dairy industry.
Dairy and Food Market Analyst Matt Gould discusses the latest USDA Milk Production and Cold Storage reports released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
The bulls were fed the week of August 13. Barrel cheese marched higher, commercial dairy product disappearance looked solid, the U.S. and Mexico appeared to be coming together in their trade spat, and even China’s commerce ministry stated that its commerce vice-minister had been invited by the U.S. to discuss economic and trade issues. And, for the first time ever, the USDA announced that it will purchase $50 million in pasteurized fluid milk.
HighGround Dairy’s Lucas Fuess tells Lee Mielke on Dairy Radio Now – that reports of heat stress in the Western U.S., Europe, Australia, and Japan is a cause for concern, and CME barrel cheese trading above the blocks for the first time since December 19, 2017, bodes well for prices and “we could have a trade deal with Mexico yet this month.” Listen here:
FC Stone dairy broker Dave Kurzawski talks with Lee Mielke about the strength in June U.S. dairy exports.
FC Stone dairy broker Dave Kurzawski gives some perspective on the lost U.S. dairy export sales to Mexico and China and how they might offset during his talk with Lee Mielke:
Uncle Sam is coming to the aid of farmers hurt by the ongoing trade and tariff wars. Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue announced July 24 that the USDA will “take several actions to assist farmers in response to trade damage from unjustified retaliation,” according to a USDA press release. The plan “authorizes up to $12 billion in programs, which is in line with the estimated $11 billion impact of the unjustified retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural goods.”
HighGround Dairy’s director of market intelligence, Lucas Fuess, talks with Lee Mielke about the plan. A big question is, would direct payments to farmers be WTO acceptable? Fuess says that’s another issue and “there has been pushback in Congress on how this plan will be carried out. WTO has frowned upon some of these subsidies that the government is planning on making,” he concluded. “HighGound hopes for a full-scale reduction of the overall tariff situation and for farmers to compete better in the world market without subsidies.”
Global trade turmoil remains in the spotlight and FC Stone’s Arlan Suderman wrote in his July 16 Morning Commentary that “Europe and Japan have signed a trade agreement to fight against the protectionist efforts of the United States, failing to mention protectionist efforts of their own in recent decades.” He talked of the “battle of public opinion and political persuasion, with most countries decrying protectionism while fully engaged in the same, and aggressively so.”
FC Stone’s Dave Kurzawski, in the July 23 Dairy Radio Now broadcast, said the ultimate question is, “Are we in this to build walls and barriers to slow global trade or expand it?” He said our actions right now appear to want to minimize global trade, which would be troubling for U.S. agriculture.
“One thing is clear,” he said, “The U.S. has no trade agreement with Japan and it looks like all the other major exporters now have at least some advantage, or will have an advantage, in the coming years.” Suderman adds that “Few countries are willing to fully eliminate tariffs and other protectionist mechanisms, although most want you to believe that is precisely the environment in which they operate.”
Kurzawski sees the Administration’s actions as an exertion of power and leverage to “essentially better our place at the negotiation table and although things over the past eight weeks have been fairly grim as far as the trade wars are concerned, and it may still get worse before it gets better, but I do think there’s a light at the end of the tunnel.”
Listen to Lee Mielke’s interview with Dave Kurzawski here:
The tariff war is starting to hurt dairy producers but, when it comes to trade, there are no simple answers, according to Matt Gould, editor, and analyst with the Dairy and Food Market Analyst newsletter. He talks with Lee Mielke about it on this week’s Mielke Monday:
The dairy markets have been trading off headlines for some time and reality is beginning to set in, according to HighGround Dairy’s AlyssaBadger. She talks with Lee Mielke about those headlines and how
Fonterra’s latest predicted milk price may be wishful thinking.
FC Stone’s Dave Kurzawski addressed the global markets on today’s Dairy Radio Now, stating “A majority of the talk surrounding the recent and drastic sell-off on Cheese and Class III (futures) revolves around President Trump’s newly imposed tariffs on the likes of China and Mexico. However, putting the blame solely on the administration is a bit of a stretch.” “A larger issue at play here seems to be the current oversupply of barrels in the marketplace, which is not an abundantly exportable cheese.”
Kurzawski admitted that, while the Mexican tariffs sent jitters throughout the market and are not good when trying to grow U.S. dairy exports, the reality is that those tariffs are only projected to effect a 4-5 cent reduction in the cheese price and not the 25-30 cents that we saw in the barrel market over the last couple weeks. “The seeds of this precipitous decline in the spot cheese market, particularly on the barrel side in the month of June, were sown probably a month or two ago,” he argued. Global dairy demand was great the first four to five months of 2018, he said, but in mid-May “the spigot was turned off, things calmed down, and the markets were of the mindset that we have enough milk for the time being. We had really good demand that was eating away at that milk, allowing us to make cheese, but now we have a lot of fresh cheese sitting out there and the phone stopped ringing.”
“The sellers got really aggressive and said, we can bleed out slowly at $1.40 (per pound) or we can go down and try to find a bid and I think they found a bid at the low $1.20s,” he said, though he doesn’t believe prices will stay that low for long. Summer heat can change this in a hurry, he said, as can other factors like cows coming off rbST in key areas, labor issues, poor income-over-feed margins, and continued good global demand. “This is not 2009,” he concluded, “even though we can see a price on the spot barrel market that we haven’t seen since 2009.”
The retaliatory tariff war with Mexico may not be as devastating for dairy as some fear, according to FC Stone dairy broker Dave Kurzawski. He talks with Lee Mielke about it and reports dairy’s latest commercial disappearance data.
We’re hearing about the retaliatory mood of global trade because of the Trump administration, but ironically the latest trade news from the dairy industry is encouraging. Lee Mielke discusses the current situation with Lucas Fuess, director of dairy market intelligence with High Ground Dairy in Chicago.
Friday was the first day of June Dairy Month, but it arrives with a lot of apprehension among dairy producers. The cash dairy markets ended the Memorial Day holiday-shortened week with block Cheddar at $1.5975 per pound, down 1 1/4-cents on the week, 10 1/4-cents below a year ago, and 6 1/4-cents lower than it was on May 1, as the week’s global politics may have influenced traders some. More on that ahead. The barrels finished at $1.52, down 2 1/2-cents on the week, 3 cents above a year ago, but 8 1/4-cents below its May 1 perch. There were 7 cars of block that traded hands on the week at the CME and 26 of barrel.
Matt Gould, editor, an analyst with the Dairy and Food Market Analyst newsletter says the second half of 2018 will be better than the first half – but he says that still doesn’t mean dairy producers will be profitable. Listen to his conversation with Lee Mielke of the Mielke Market Weekly on today’s Dairy Radio Now.
New Zealand officials are working on a plan to eradicate an outbreak of Mycoplasma bovis. M bovis causes illness in cattle including udder infections or mastitis, abortion, pneumonia and arthritis. “The disease was discovered last July and since then 41 farms have been confirmed as infected,” according to Radio Radio New Zealand. “That has since dropped to 37 farms, with more than 11,000 cattle slaughtered,” Alyssa Badger, manager of dairy market intelligence with High Ground Dairy in Chicago tells us this is the first time that M bovis has been reported in New Zealand.
According to Radio New Zealand: Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced a 10-year phased eradication, although most of the work will happen over the next one to two years, and will cost about $886 million.
Recent data shows food restaurant sales are up and that’s good news for the dairy industry. Jerry Dryer, editor, and analyst of the Dairy & Food Market Analyst newsletter joined Lee Mielke on Monday’s Dairy Radio Now to share the latest numbers.
U.S. dairy exports set a new record high in March on a total volume basis surpassing the previous record high set in March 2014. Exports of whey protein concentrate and lactose each hit all-time highs. Suppliers shipped 204,453 tons of milk powder, cheese, butterfat, whey, and lactose during the month, up 26 percent from March 2017. U.S. exports were valued at $510 million, 8 percent greater than in March 2017 and the highest total value since April 2015.
Ingredient sales drove much of the gains. Shipments of nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder (NDM/SMP) to Southeast Asia were nearly double the prior-year level and sales to Mexico were the second-most ever. Shipments of lactose to China increased by 57 percent during the month and were at a record high.
FC Stone dairy broker Dave Kurzawski tells Lee Mielke that on a total milk solids basis, exports were equivalent to 17.3 percent of U.S. milk production.