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What’s In Store For 2019

Dairy farmers and allied industry will get an update on the U.S. dairy markets and global report from economist Dan Basse at PDPW's World Class Webinar on November 21, 2018.  Click here to register.  Listen below to Basse's comments on what he is looking at for 2019:...

NMPF Urges Congress to Put Farmers First in Lame-Duck Session

Jim Mulhern, president and CEO of the National Milk Producers Federation (NMPF), urged Congress to make passing a new farm bill a top priority in its lame-duck session that starts tomorrow, saying that dairy farmers harmed by low prices would benefit from the...

Great Buys in Feed

What are some of the good buys for byproduct feed? Dr. Mike Hutjens give us his two cents on this Feed Form Friday on Dairy Radio Now.  

ADSA Enhances The Learning Experience

Dr. Ken Olson from The American Dairy Science Association joined us on today's Dairy Radio Now to share with us the wide variety of resources at dairy producers and industry professional's fingertips....

Focus on Bedding & Nutrition to Prevent Pneumonia

This month, Dr. Ryan Leiterman of Crystal Creek debunks the myth that ventilation is the main cause of pneumonia.  

PDPW Calf Care Connection Is Next Week

Geek out on calves at the PDPW Calf Care Connection® training on Nov. 13, 14, 15, 2018, from 9:30 a.m. - 4:15 p.m., in Fennimore, Eau Claire and Chilton, Wis., respectively. This workshop is designed to challenge the most seasoned calf care managers, calf feeders and...

Is There A Silver Lining in Dairy’s Dark Cloud?

Matt Gould, an analyst of the Dairy & Food Market Analyst newsletter joined us on today's Mielke Monday to see if there is any silver lining in the down milk prices that producers are facing.  

Collaboration Creates Nutrition Package

Micronutrients USA (Micronutrients) and Kemin Industries (Kemin) are partnering to introduce IntelliBond® VITAL 5 Cr, the world's first nutrition package containing six essential trace minerals to support dairy and beef cattle well-being and performance. Dr. Scott Fry...

Profitability Is Possible

Today's Feed Form segment with Dr. Mike Hutjens focuses on being more profitable during a challenging time:  

Class III Drops 56 Cents

The Agriculture Department announced the October Federal Order Class III benchmark milk price at $15.53 per hundredweight, down 56 cents from September, $1.16 below October 2017, and equates to $1.34 per gallon, down from $1.38 in September and $1.44 a year ago. The...

Lee Mielke

Got Mielke?

It was Labor Day, 1988 when Lee Mielke launched DairyLine, a radio network devoted entirely to the dairy industry. Since then, DairyLine has transformed to Dairy Radio Now with MIelke providing weekly reports on the latest market conditions. On this anniversary we had a chance to look back at 30 years of providing info to the dairy industry.

 

Dairy Markets Have Bullish Week

The bulls were fed the week of August 13. Barrel cheese marched higher, commercial dairy product disappearance looked solid, the U.S. and Mexico appeared to be coming together in their trade spat, and even China’s commerce ministry stated that its commerce vice-minister had been invited by the U.S. to discuss economic and trade issues. And, for the first time ever, the USDA announced that it will purchase $50 million in pasteurized fluid milk. 

HighGround Dairy’s Lucas Fuess tells Lee Mielke on Dairy Radio Now – that reports of heat stress in the Western U.S., Europe, Australia, and Japan is a cause for concern, and CME barrel cheese trading above the blocks for the first time since December 19, 2017, bodes well for prices and “we could have a trade deal with Mexico yet this month.”  Listen here:

 

Hoping For Full Scale Tariff Reduction

Uncle Sam is coming to the aid of farmers hurt by the ongoing trade and tariff wars. Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue announced July 24 that the USDA will “take several actions to assist farmers in response to trade damage from unjustified retaliation,” according to a USDA press release. The plan “authorizes up to $12 billion in programs, which is in line with the estimated $11 billion impact of the unjustified retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural goods.”

HighGround Dairy’s director of market intelligence, Lucas Fuess, talks with Lee Mielke about the plan. A big question is, would direct payments to farmers be WTO acceptable? Fuess says that’s another issue and “there has been pushback in Congress on how this plan will be carried out. WTO has frowned upon some of these subsidies that the government is planning on making,” he concluded. “HighGound hopes for a full-scale reduction of the overall tariff situation and for farmers to compete better in the world market without subsidies.”

 

Minimizing Global Trade Troubling For U.S. Agriculture

Global trade turmoil remains in the spotlight and FC Stone’s Arlan Suderman wrote in his July 16 Morning Commentary that “Europe and Japan have signed a trade agreement to fight against the protectionist efforts of the United States, failing to mention protectionist efforts of their own in recent decades.” He talked of the “battle of public opinion and political persuasion, with most countries decrying protectionism while fully engaged in the same, and aggressively so.” 

FC Stone’s Dave Kurzawski, in the July 23 Dairy Radio Now broadcast, said the ultimate question is, “Are we in this to build walls and barriers to slow global trade or expand it?” He said our actions right now appear to want to minimize global trade, which would be troubling for U.S. agriculture. 

 “One thing is clear,” he said, “The U.S. has no trade agreement with Japan and it looks like all the other major exporters now have at least some advantage, or will have an advantage, in the coming years.” Suderman adds that “Few countries are willing to fully eliminate tariffs and other protectionist mechanisms, although most want you to believe that is precisely the environment in which they operate.” 

Kurzawski sees the Administration’s actions as an exertion of power and leverage to “essentially better our place at the negotiation table and although things over the past eight weeks have been fairly grim as far as the trade wars are concerned, and it may still get worse before it gets better, but I do think there’s a light at the end of the tunnel.”
Listen to Lee Mielke’s interview with Dave Kurzawski here:

Oversupply, Trade Talks Affecting Dairy Markets

FC Stone’s Dave Kurzawski addressed the global markets on today’s Dairy Radio Now,  stating “A majority of the talk surrounding the recent and drastic sell-off on Cheese and Class III (futures) revolves around President Trump’s newly imposed tariffs on the likes of China and Mexico. However, putting the blame solely on the administration is a bit of a stretch.” “A larger issue at play here seems to be the current oversupply of barrels in the marketplace, which is not an abundantly exportable cheese.” 

Kurzawski admitted that, while the Mexican tariffs sent jitters throughout the market and are not good when trying to grow U.S. dairy exports, the reality is that those tariffs are only projected to effect a 4-5 cent reduction in the cheese price and not the 25-30 cents that we saw in the barrel market over the last couple weeks. “The seeds of this precipitous decline in the spot cheese market, particularly on the barrel side in the month of June, were sown probably a month or two ago,” he argued. Global dairy demand was great the first four to five months of 2018, he said, but in mid-May “the spigot was turned off, things calmed down, and the markets were of the mindset that we have enough milk for the time being. We had really good demand that was eating away at that milk, allowing us to make cheese, but now we have a lot of fresh cheese sitting out there and the phone stopped ringing.” 

“The sellers got really aggressive and said, we can bleed out slowly at $1.40 (per pound) or we can go down and try to find a bid and I think they found a bid at the low $1.20s,” he said, though he doesn’t believe prices will stay that low for long. Summer heat can change this in a hurry, he said, as can other factors like cows coming off rbST in key areas, labor issues, poor income-over-feed margins, and continued good global demand. “This is not 2009,” he concluded, “even though we can see a price on the spot barrel market that we haven’t seen since 2009.”

 

Apprehension Among Dairy Producers

Friday was the first day of June Dairy Month, but it arrives with a lot of apprehension among dairy producers. The cash dairy markets ended the Memorial Day holiday-shortened week with block Cheddar at $1.5975 per pound, down 1 1/4-cents on the week, 10 1/4-cents below a year ago, and 6 1/4-cents lower than it was on May 1, as the week’s global politics may have influenced traders some. More on that ahead. The barrels finished at $1.52, down 2 1/2-cents on the week, 3 cents above a year ago, but 8 1/4-cents below its May 1 perch. There were 7 cars of block that traded hands on the week at the CME and 26 of barrel.

Matt Gould, editor, an analyst with the Dairy and Food Market Analyst newsletter says the second half of 2018 will be better than the first half – but he says that still doesn’t mean dairy producers will be profitable. Listen to his conversation with Lee Mielke of the Mielke Market Weekly on today’s Dairy Radio Now.

New Zealand Dealing With Mycoplasma Bovis

New Zealand officials are working on a plan to eradicate an outbreak of Mycoplasma bovis. M bovis causes illness in cattle including udder infections or mastitis, abortion, pneumonia and arthritis. “The disease was discovered last July and since then 41 farms have been confirmed as infected,” according to Radio Radio New Zealand. “That has since dropped to 37 farms, with more than 11,000 cattle slaughtered,”  Alyssa Badger, manager of dairy market intelligence with High Ground Dairy in Chicago tells us this is the first time that M bovis has been reported in New Zealand.

 

 

According to Radio New Zealand: Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced a 10-year phased eradication, although most of the work will happen over the next one to two years, and will cost about $886 million.

 

Dairy Products See Strong Global Growth

U.S. dairy exports set a new record high in March on a total volume basis surpassing the previous record high set in March 2014. Exports of whey protein concentrate and lactose each hit all-time highs. Suppliers shipped 204,453 tons of milk powder, cheese, butterfat, whey, and lactose during the month, up 26 percent from March 2017. U.S. exports were valued at $510 million, 8 percent greater than in March 2017 and the highest total value since April 2015.

Ingredient sales drove much of the gains. Shipments of nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder (NDM/SMP) to Southeast Asia were nearly double the prior-year level and sales to Mexico were the second-most ever. Shipments of lactose to China increased by 57 percent during the month and were at a record high.

FC Stone dairy broker Dave Kurzawski tells Lee Mielke that on a total milk solids basis, exports were equivalent to 17.3 percent of U.S. milk production.

Monday May 7, 2018: Lucas Fuess, High Ground Dairy

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