Lee Mielke

Benchmark Up $1.20

The Agriculture Department announced the September Federal order Class III milk price at $18.39 per hundredweight, up $1.20 from August, but $1.43 below September 2022 and the highest Class III since April.

The nine month average stands at $17.13, down from $22.24 at this time a year ago and compares to $16.75 in 2021.

Wednesday’s Class III futures portend an October price at $16.76; November, $17.07; December, $17.40; January, $17.88; February, $18.05; and March at $18.27.

The September Class IV price is $19.09, up 18 cents from August, $5.54 below a year ago, but the highest Class IV since January. Its average stands at $18.65, down from $24.81 a year ago and compares to $15.26 in 2021. Courtesy of the Mielke Market Weekly

More Dairy Beef In Supply

Tight finances on dairy farms and high beef prices are tempting producers. StoneX broker Dave Kurzawski says dairy beef is making up a bigger percentage of the U.S. beef supply than it was a year ago, and talks with Lee Mielke about it.

March Class I: $18.99

The Agriculture Department announced the March Federal Order Class I base milk price at $18.99 per hundredweight, down $1.79 from February and $3.89 below March 2022, lowest Class I since Nov. 2021. The three month average stands at $20.73, down from $21.41 at this time a year ago, and compares to $15.29 in 2021. Courtesy of the Mielke Market Weekly

GDT Disappoints Again

The Global Dairy Trade’s last main event last week was another disappointing performance. HighGround Dairy’s Lucas Fuess talks with Lee Mielke about China’s impact:


China’s Role in GDT A Big Factor

China remains the big factor in the poor performing Global Dairy Trade and that may continue for awhile, says StoneX dairy broker Dave Kurzawski. He talks with Lee Mielke about it, based on first hand info out of China.


Dairy Headlines

Last week had plenty of headlines from the disappointing Pulse dairy auction to China’s mounting COVID cases and growing government protests, to USDA’s disappointing purchases of dairy products and the possibility of national railway strike. HighGround Dairy’s Lucas Fuess talks with Lee Mielke:


Benchmark Milk Price Drops 80 Cents

The Agriculture Department announced the November Federal order Class III benchmark milk price at $21.01 per hundredweight (cwt.), down 80 cents from October but $2.98 above Nov. 2021. That put the eleven month average at $22.09, up from $16.96 a year ago and $18.39 in 2020.

The November Class IV price is $23.30, down $1.66 from October, $4.51 above a year ago, and the lowest Class IV since January. Courtesy of the Mielke Market Weekly

Class I Down $1.51

The Agriculture Department announced the final Federal order Class I base milk price of the year at $22.58 per hundredweight, down $1.51 from November but $3.41 above Dec. 2021, and the lowest Class I since February. It equates to $1.94 per gallon, up from $1.65 a year ago. The Class I average for 2022 is $23.66, up from $16.83 a year ago and $16.91 in 2020.


Global Dairy Trading Struggling

GDT trading has been struggling and much of that due to China’s absence but global markets are increasingly important to U.S. dairy farmers. But, global markets “have never been more interdependent than they are currently,” says Ron O’Brien, President of New Zealand-based Nui Markets North America. He talks with Lee Mielke about it:


Prices Pulling Back

Butter prices have pulled back and cheese has fallen below $2 per pound. The “elephant in the room is not in the room,” meaning China – but StoneX broker Dave Kurzawski tells Lee Mielke there’s still support under the markets:


Nov. Class I Jumps To $24.09

The November Federal order Class I base milk price was announced at $24.09 per hundredweight, up $1.38 from October, $6.11 above Nov. 2021, and the highest November price ever, topping to the Nov. 2014 high by 3 cents. It equates to $2.07 per gallon, up from $1.55 a year ago. The eleven month average stands at $23.76, up from $16.61 a year ago and $16.64 in 2020.

Courtesy of the Mielke Market Weekly

Milk Production Forecast Up

The USDA has upped its latest milk production estimate in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. HighGround Dairy’s Lucus Fuess agrees and says the consensus is that U.S. milk output might be a little stronger than normal this fall and into 2023. He talks about it with Lee Mielke.


Class III Slips 28 Cents

The September Federal order Class III benchmark milk price slipped 28 cents from the previous month but is still $3.29 above September 2021. Unfortunately, it’s the lowest Class III since Dec. 2021. The nine month average stands at $22.24, up from $16.75 a year ago, $17.48 in 2020 and $16.11 in 2019.

The September Class IV price is $24.63, down 18 cents from August, $8.27 above a year ago, and the lowest Class IV since February. The Class IV average is at $24.81, up from $15.26 a year ago, $13.53 in 2020, and 16.21 in 2019.
Courtesy of the Mielke Market Weekly

Is Tik Tok Boosting Butter Price?

U.S. butter prices have been in the clouds and part of the reason for that may actually lie in the sometimes controversial Tik Tok social media, according to StoneX dairy broker Dave Kurzawski. He talks about it with Lee Mielke:


Got Milk? Yes, But Sluggish Output

The Got Milk campaign imagined what a shortage of milk would mean to consumers. With July milk output only up 0.2%, do we face a milk shortage in this country? Matt Gould, analyst and editor of the Dairy and Food Market Analyst newsletter, talks about it with Lee Mielke:


Butter High Short-Lived

Butter hit a seven-year high on Aug 3rd but was short-lived. StoneX broker Dave Kurzawski talks with Lee Mielke about it, and how bullish he is on cheese, despite prices falling below $2 per pound.


Class III Takes A Hit

The news was mixed this past week with the $1.81 drop in the Class III milk price, however U.S. dairy exports remained strong in June. HighGround Dairy’s Lucas Fuess talks with Lee Mielke about the highlights.


GDT Down

Tuesday’s GDT weighted average was down 5%. Many point the finger at China and the latest import data would seem to support that. HighGround Dairy’s Lucas Fuess talks about it with Lee Mielke:


Is Dairy Demand Slipping?

The numbers would indicate dairy product demand is slipping however StoneX dairy broker Dave Kurzawski, says you have to put the data into perspective and does so in his talk with Lee Mielke:


Post Holiday Blues

Tuesday was not a good day to come back to, following the 4th of July holiday. The GDT dropped 4.1% and CME prices fell as well. Lee Mielke talks about it with Matt Gould, editor of the Dairy and Food Market Analyst.


Benchmark Milk Price Down 88 Cents

The Agriculture Department announced the June Federal order Class III milk price at $24.33 per hundredweight, down 88 cents from May but $7.12 above June 2021.

That put the 2022 Class III average at $22.95, up from $16.96 at this time a year ago, $16.09 in 2020, and $15.25 in 2019.

The June Class IV price set another new record high at $25.83, up 84 cents from May, and $9.48 above a year ago. Its average sits at $24.67, up from $14.84 a year ago, $13.78 in 2020, and $15.98 in 2019. Courtesy of the Mielke Market Weekly

Milk, Feed Prices Set Records

The April All Milk Price set another record high; but feed prices are setting records too. Bill Brooks, dairy economist with Missouri-based Stoneheart Consulting, talks with Lee Mielke about it.


Benchmark Sets New Record

The Agriculture Department announced the May Federal order Class III milk price at $25.21 per hundredweight, up 79 cents from April, $6.25 above May 2021, and a new record high for the Class III. The 2022 average now stands at $22.67, up from $16.91 a year ago, $15.10 in 2020, and $15.05 in 2019.

The May Class IV price is $24.99, down 32 cents from April but $8.83 above a year ago. The five-month average is at $24.44, up from $14.54 a year ago, $13.96 in 2020, and $15.81 in 2019. Courtesy of the Mielke Market Weekly